NCAA Football

Week 9 DVOA Preview: The eagles have landed

QB Jalen eagles hurts

QB Jalen eagles hurts

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

The 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles have finally climbed to the top spot on the DVOA rankings, at least temporarily.

The Eagles, who survived a slow first half to defeat the lowly Houston Texans 29-17 on Thursday night, passed the Buffalo Bills 6-2, who lost 20-17 to the New York Jets on Sunday. The fourth-ranked Baltimore Ravens face the New Orleans Saints Monday night, so the Week 9 DVOA rankings are still pending. But the Eagles are almost certain to keep the lead this week.

Defeating the Texans did little to help the Eagles on our metrics: they slipped low from 34.6% to 32.7%, mainly because allowing 139 yards to Dameon Pierce caused a downtick on his defensive DVOA. The Bills, however, dropped from 36.0% above the league average to 30.2%, with drops in all three phases.

The Bills still lead the NFL in offensive yards per game (416.4) and per play (6.46). They rank fourth in defensive yards per game (299.6) and eighth in yards per game (5.0). The Eagles offense ranks fourth in yards per game (391.4) and ninth in yards per game (5.80); his third defense in yards per game (299.0) and second in yards per game (4.72).

The Eagles have a huge advantage over the Bills and every other team in the NFL: they have a +15 turnover differential. No other team was better than +6 going into Monday night. The Bills, coming off Josh Allen’s second straight two intercept game, are at +1

The Eagles’ fourth conversion rate of 75% (12 out of 16) is also the best in the NFL.

There is now a 15.3% chance that the Eagles and Bills will face off in the Super Bowl, with the Eagles winning the NFC 44.6% of the time and the Bills winning the AFC 34.1% of the time. You can access all Football Outsiders playoffs and Super Bowl odds here.

A quick note for newbies: DVOA is tuned for opponent strength, so our metrics take into account the eagles’ easy programming. It’s hard to adjust to an undefeated start and an average margin of victory of 28-17.

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